Because the omicron coronavirus variant spreads in southern Africa and pops up in international locations all all over the world, scientists are anxiously watching a battle play out that might decide the way forward for the pandemic. Can the newest competitor to the world-dominating delta overthrow it?
Some scientists, poring over knowledge from South Africa and the UK, counsel omicron may emerge the victor.
“It’s nonetheless early days, however more and more, knowledge is beginning to trickle in, suggesting that omicron is prone to outcompete delta in lots of, if not all, locations,” mentioned Dr. Jacob Lemieux, who displays variants for a analysis collaboration led by Harvard Medical Faculty.
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However others mentioned Monday it’s too quickly to know the way seemingly it’s that omicron will unfold extra effectively than delta, or, if it does, how briskly it’d take over.
“Particularly right here within the U.S., the place we’re seeing important surges in delta, whether or not omicron’s going to switch it I believe we’ll know in about two weeks,” mentioned Matthew Binnicker, director of scientific virology at Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota.
Many vital questions on omicron stay unanswered, together with whether or not the virus causes milder or extra extreme sickness and the way a lot it’d evade immunity from previous COVID-19 sickness or vaccines.
On the problem of unfold, scientists level to what’s taking place in South Africa, the place omicron was first detected. Omicron’s pace in infecting individuals and attaining close to dominance in South Africa has well being consultants fearful that the nation is at first of a brand new wave that will come to overwhelm hospitals.
The brand new variant quickly moved South Africa from a interval of low transmission, averaging lower than 200 new instances per day in mid-November, to greater than 16,000 per day over the weekend. Omicron accounts for greater than 90% of the brand new instances in Gauteng province, the epicenter of the brand new wave, in accordance with consultants. The brand new variant is quickly spreading and attaining dominance in South Africa’s eight different provinces.
“The virus is spreading terribly quick,” mentioned Willem Hanekom, director of the Africa Well being Analysis Institute. “If you happen to take a look at the slopes of this wave that we’re in in the mean time, it’s a a lot steeper slope than the primary three waves that South Africa skilled. This means that it’s spreading quick and it could subsequently be a really transmissible virus.”
However Hanekom, who can be co-chair the South African COVID-19 Variants Analysis Consortium, mentioned South Africa had such low numbers of delta instances when omicron emerged, “I don’t suppose we are able to say” it out-competed delta.
Scientists say it’s unclear whether or not omicron will behave the identical manner in different international locations because it has in South Africa. Lemieux mentioned there are already some hints about the way it could behave; in locations like the UK, which does quite a lot of genomic sequencing, he mentioned, “we’re seeing what seems to be a sign of exponential enhance of omicron over delta.”
In the US, as in the remainder of the world, “there’s nonetheless quite a lot of uncertainty,” he mentioned. “However while you put the early knowledge collectively, you begin to see a constant image emerge: that omicron is already right here, and primarily based on what we’ve noticed in South Africa, it’s prone to change into the dominant pressure within the coming weeks and months and can seemingly trigger a surge in case numbers.”
What that might imply for public well being stays to be seen. Hanekom mentioned early knowledge from South Africa reveals that reinfection charges are a lot larger with omicron than earlier variants, suggesting the virus is escaping immunity considerably. It additionally reveals the virus appears to be infecting youthful individuals, largely those that are unvaccinated, and most instances in hospitals have been comparatively gentle.
However Binnicker mentioned issues may play out otherwise in different components of the world or in numerous teams of sufferers. “It’ll be actually attention-grabbing to see what occurs when extra infections probably happen in older adults or these with underlying well being circumstances,” he mentioned. “What’s the end result in these sufferers?”
Because the world waits for solutions, scientists counsel individuals do all they’ll to guard themselves.
“We need to ensure that individuals have as a lot immunity from vaccination as doable. So if individuals are not vaccinated they need to get vaccinated,” Lemieux mentioned. “If individuals are eligible for boosters, they need to get boosters, after which do all the opposite issues that we all know are efficient for lowering transmission — masking and social distancing and avoiding giant indoor gatherings, significantly with out masks.”