This summer, Instagram feeds are featuring splashy girl trips, bachelor parties, weddings and family reunions as consumers go big after a year at home. But the party can’t last forever: Eventually, budgets will run dry, vacation time will be depleted and in-person school will resume. Chances are consumers will then be looking for a different pandemic itch to scratch.
Shares of online travel agents
Booking Holdings
BKNG 1.00%
and
Expedia Group
EXPE 2.03%
are up an average of 68% over the past 12 months, while shares of dating app companies
Match Group
MTCH -1.10%
and
Bumble
BMBL -1.02%
climbed an average of 17%. The disparity makes sense at first: A survey from hotel search platform trivago conducted in January found that nearly three-quarters of Americans said they planned to travel more than they have in the past once the pandemic ends. It also found that two in five would give up sex to hit the road immediately.
But investors might have gotten ahead of themselves. Shares of both Expedia and Booking hit records in March and April, respectively. Data since then has been sobering. As of the first quarter, Booking reported that room nights booked were still less than half of what they were in the first quarter of 2019, while total bookings for Expedia were still down about 48% on the same basis. According to BTIG analyst
Jake Fuller,
travel stocks appreciated so much early this year that even strong second-quarter results might not give them a further boost.
Meanwhile, full recovery isn’t a sure thing. Covid-19 case counts remain high in some areas, variants continue to proliferate and business travel is predicted to remain low for the foreseeable future. AB Bernstein’s
Richard Clarke
says future travelers might underestimate the risk of another pandemic, unexpected quarantine or getting stranded overseas. He also warns that some governments could use health considerations as an excuse for politically influenced border controls, even post-pandemic. All of this could lead to lower pricing power in the industry and more would-be travelers embracing the “staycation,” he said.
Investors might have been looking for love in all the wrong places. Dating apps have weathered the pandemic well and seem to be picking up steam. Match Group grew revenue nearly 44% in the first quarter from the same period in 2019. Bumble said first-quarter paying users rose 30% from a year earlier.
An AlphaWise survey from Morgan Stanley shows that 87% of current users plan to maintain or increase their usage of online dating in the next 12 months, especially Millennials and those with high household income. Those users have a higher willingness and ability to pay relative to others, according to Morgan Stanley analyst
Lauren Schenk.
A survey from Evercore ISI was encouraging. It found that 87% of respondents planned to maintain or increase usage of dating apps over the next six months and that 53% of those not currently paying would consider paying in the future. Beyond dating, more than three-quarters of its respondents said they would use dating apps to make new friends or meet new people—a good sign for Bumble’s product extension for friendship, BFF, and Match’s Hyperconnect.
Especially in the event Covid-19 variants continue to spread, data app users seem game to date from home. A survey by Bumble found that two-thirds of respondents believe it is possible to fall in love with someone they have never met in person. Some even prefer virtual dates, noting they save time and money and require getting ready only from the waist up.
Consumers said they preferred the dream of travel to the reality of a relationship after a year at home, but it seems they are already getting lonely.
Write to Laura Forman at laura.forman@wsj.com
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Appeared in the July 2, 2021, print edition.