Arian Sharifi:
The Taliban obviously are going to be the main power in the government. They are going to have the majority. But at least if they negotiate, if they agree to deal with some non-Taliban members are there and the government within the structures and would agree to some level of a balance between their ideological autocracy and the democratic and liberal gains we’ve had over the past two decades, then that could be something that would be sustainable.
Obviously, we’re not going to be experiencing the freedoms we’ve had over the past two decades in terms of freedom of speech, of assembly, of women’s rights, et cetera, et cetera. We’re not going to have that level again. That’s a given, but at least some level of freedom. If that negotiated settlement doesn’t work then we go to scenario number two, where the Taliban will actually take over everything by force and refuse to share power with anybody else but then we go back to the 1990s that we have at least three threats that are going to emanate.
Threat number one is transnational terrorism. Let’s not forget that the Taliban were only one, albeit the largest, but one of some 20 to 21 terrorist groups that operated in Afghanistan over the past two decades. Their entire goal thus far has been to use Afghan territory to project terrorism across the region and across the world. They are now going to see their dreams come true. Number two, you have the drug trade. Let’s not forget the drug. And number three, you’ve got likely very much, waves of refugees getting out of Afghanistan, flooding across the region and perhaps even Europe.
