WASHINGTON — The brand new omicron variant took only some weeks to reside as much as dire predictions about how vastly contagious it’s. Scientists don’t but know if it causes extra extreme illness, even because the world faces exploding instances simply earlier than Christmas.
“Every little thing is riskier now as a result of omicron is a lot extra contagious,” mentioned Dr. S. Wesley Lengthy, who directs the testing lab at Houston Methodist Hospital — and over the previous week has canceled quite a few plans to keep away from publicity.
Omicron is now the dominant variant within the U.S., federal well being officers mentioned Monday, accounting for about three-quarters of latest infections final week.
The velocity that it is outpacing the additionally very contagious delta variant is astonishing public well being officers. In three weeks, omicron now makes up 80% of latest symptomatic instances identified by Houston Methodist’s testing websites. It took the delta variant three months to succeed in that degree, Lengthy mentioned.
The mutant’s skill to unfold sooner and evade immunity got here at a nasty time — proper as journey elevated and many individuals let down their guard. However what the omicron wave will imply for the world continues to be unclear as a result of so many questions stay unanswered.
Right here’s the newest on what’s identified and what’s nonetheless to study omicron.
How a lot safety do vaccines provide?
Vaccines within the U.S. and world wide don’t provide as a lot safety towards omicron as they’ve towards earlier variations of the coronavirus. Nonetheless, vaccines nonetheless assist — lots. Firm lab assessments present whereas two doses might not be robust sufficient to forestall an infection, a booster shot of both the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine produces virus-fighting antibodies able to tackling omicron.
Antibody ranges naturally drop over time, and a booster revved them again up once more, by 25 instances for Pfizer’s additional shot and 37 instances for Moderna’s. Nobody is aware of precisely what degree is excessive sufficient — or how lengthy it will likely be earlier than antibody ranges start dropping once more.
The outcomes from Pfizer and Moderna’s assessments had not but undergone scientific evaluate when the businesses made their bulletins.
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After a booster, the safety towards an omicron an infection nonetheless seems about 20% lower than safety towards the delta variant, mentioned Dr. Egon Ozer of Northwestern College.
But when the virus will get previous that first line of protection, the vaccinated have extra layers of safety.
“The vaccines are going to guard you towards extreme illness, hospitalization and demise,” mentioned Houston Methodist’s Lengthy. “And that’s actually an important factor.”
These additional defenses embrace T cells that mobilize to beat again the virus, plus reminiscence cells that, as soon as reactivated, race to make extra and stronger antibodies.
What about pure immunity to COVID-19?
A previous an infection doesn’t appear to supply a lot safety towards an omicron an infection though, like with vaccination, it might scale back the possibilities of extreme sickness.
In South Africa, the place omicron already has unfold broadly, scientists reported a leap in reinfections that they hadn’t seen when two earlier mutants, together with delta, moved by way of the nation.
In Britain, a report from the Imperial Faculty of London on Friday discovered the danger of reinfection from omicron was 5 instances larger in comparison with the sooner delta variant.
Well being consultants say anybody who’s survived a bout of COVID-19 nonetheless ought to get vaccinated, as a result of the mixture usually presents stronger safety.
Why does omicron unfold so quick?
Scientists are attempting to decode the handfuls of mutations that omicron carries to determine what else is happening. Researchers in Hong Kong lately reported hints that omicron could multiply extra shortly within the airway than delta did, though not as effectively deep within the lungs.
What scientists cannot measure is human conduct: Many locations have been enjoyable restrictions, winter compelled gatherings indoors and journey has jumped proper as omicron started spreading.
Does omicron trigger milder signs?
It’s nonetheless too early to know — particularly provided that if the vaccinated get a breakthrough an infection, it must be milder than if omicron assaults the unvaccinated.
Early stories from South Africa prompt milder sickness however medical doctors have been not sure whether or not that’s as a result of the inhabitants is pretty younger — or that many retained some safety from a latest delta an infection.
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And that British research discovered no proof that omicron has been milder than delta in Britain, even with younger adults — who could be anticipated to have milder sickness — having larger charges of an infection with omicron.
“There’s a touch, and I believe many people are hopeful, that omicron might be much less extreme. However I don’t assume we are able to guess the farm on that. We’re nonetheless speaking about SARS CoV-2, a virus that has killed thousands and thousands of individuals,” mentioned Dr. Jacob Lemieux, who screens variants for a analysis collaboration led by Harvard Medical Faculty.
Who’s most in danger?
Primarily based on the conduct of different variants, “if you happen to’re older, if in case you have underlying situations, if you happen to’re overweight, you’re extra prone to have extreme illness. I don’t assume it’s going to be any completely different” than different variants, mentioned Dr. Carlos del Rio of Emory College.
However even if you happen to don’t get very sick, an omicron an infection might actually damage the vacations. Specialists agree that along with getting vaccinated and boosted, it is sensible to get again to the fundamentals of safety: Put on masks indoors, keep away from crowds and preserve your distance.
Val Lick and AP Science Author Laura Ungar contributed to this report.
The Related Press Well being and Science Division receives assist from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Division of Science Schooling. The AP is solely liable for all content material.
