In 2014, when Katko introduced his preliminary run for Congress in a crowded, eight-person major, Democratic operatives who knew Central New York acknowledged shortly the potential efficiency of the items of his biography, not simply the tough-on-crime central-casting picture however the Irish, the Catholic, the hockey, Camillus and the west aspect — all markers that matter throughout the political topography of the world. Katko’s brother-in-law even was (and is) the proprietor of a widely known Irish bar in downtown Syracuse in Armory Sq..
The incumbent, in the meantime, was Democrat Dan Maffei, who in 2012 had overwhelmed conservative Republican Ann Marie Buerkle, who in 2010 had overwhelmed … Dan Maffei. After the departure of average Republican Jim Walsh, who had held the Syracuse seat for 20 years, the district was ping-ponging searching for a consultant who was a relatively apt match. “We noticed Katko on the scene, and we had been, like, ‘Oh shit,’” one operative informed me. “Everybody was frightened from day one,” mentioned one other. “He’s simply any individual that form of match the district terribly effectively,” mentioned a 3rd.
Katko was requested by Harding from the Auburn Citizen in his first actual interview of the race whether or not he thought of himself a conservative or extra of a average.
“I’m a conservative,” he mentioned, “however a average on the similar time.”
He beat Maffei by almost 20 factors.
On Election Day, he wore a purple tie — Niagara College’s foremost shade, however there was another excuse. “I wore a purple tie,” he mentioned, “to indicate my dedication to working in a bipartisan method to symbolize Central New York in Congress. I consider that we have to work collectively — Democrats and Republicans.”
In 2016, he received by greater than 20 factors. In 2018, a cycle during which Democrats picked up 41 seats within the Home, Katko had his solely race that was remotely shut — and he received by a bit greater than 5 factors. In 2020, towards the identical basic election opponent, the margin went again up into double digits. Katko was one in every of solely 9 Home Republicans to win a district Biden received, and he’s one in every of solely three (David Valadao of California, Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania) to have received in a Clinton district, too.
After 2021, although, can Katko win once more in 2022?
“The tightrope that he’s strolling will get thinner and thinner,” New York Democratic strategist Evan Stavisky informed me, “and each couple of weeks one other strand of the rope begins to pop off.”
“He doesn’t symbolize the Conservative Social gathering and our rules,” Dadey informed me. “He simply doesn’t.”
“He’s going to have a really, very robust uphill climb to win reelection,” mentioned Ment, “with out the Conservative endorsement.”
“In a major, if it’s the fitting candidate, if it’s a semi-known particular person,” mentioned Jim Quinn, a state Conservative Social gathering vice chair, “I believe he may be overwhelmed.”
Katko has the 2 pro-Trump major challengers — John Murtari, a software program engineer who gave $70 to Bernie Sanders in 2016 however says Katko’s impeachment vote for him was a “set off” and who’s raised subsequent to no cash for his run, and Tim Ko, a neurosurgery doctor’s assistant who launched two months in the past what’s his first bid for public workplace of any variety. He hasn’t filed a fundraising report.
Quinn had made 100 anti-Katko yard indicators. They’ve his identify in a circle with a purple strike of a line by way of it. “NOT A CONSERVATIVE,” they are saying. “NOT EVEN A REPUBLICAN.” Quinn despatched me an image of one in every of them. Zigzagging across the district one current afternoon, I noticed none of them. I additionally noticed vanishingly few Trump indicators or flags or the rest. The place I reside, in North Carolina within the suburbs of Charlotte, I see extra Trump stuff within the not-four-mile drive to my daughter’s elementary faculty than I noticed in 4 days in New York’s twenty fourth district. “Syracuse,” former Publish-Customary government editor Mike Connor informed me, “is just not Trumpworld.”
However the lack of the help of Conservative Social gathering leaders is nonetheless a complicator for Katko. There are 142,894 registered Republicans within the twenty fourth district and solely 9,185 registered Conservatives, however in New York’s fusion voting the mix of Republican and Conservative help helps Republicans win, and the Conservatives might run a candidate within the basic it doesn’t matter what occurs within the major. “We’ll have a candidate on the road for certain,” mentioned Kassar, the state chair. That candidate virtually definitely wouldn’t win however might shave away sufficient of Katko’s vote to successfully make him lose — and the Democrat win. Ment says he’s high quality with that. “We’ve given up on believing that he’s in any manner, form or type a Republican,” he informed me. “Because the Conservative Social gathering, we don’t need him in Congress anymore.”
“A lot so,” I mentioned, “that you really want a Democrat in Congress?”
“We’ll take the Democrat,” Ment mentioned. He believes Republicans with or with out Katko will win again the Home with ease.
“So your gambit,” I mentioned, “is you don’t want John Katko to have a majority … so f— him?”
“I wouldn’t put it in fairly these phrases, as a result of I don’t need to offend anyone,” Ment mentioned with fun, “however yeah.”
The three Democrats which have declared listed below are all army veterans — Sarah Klee Hood (Air Drive), Steven Holden (Military) and Francis Conole (Navy). Conole in an interview pointed to Katko’s district as “a vital pickup alternative for Democrats.” A fourth-generation Central New Yorker and Iraq Battle veteran, he ran unsuccessfully within the Democratic major in 2020. Of the three, Conole, 43, was the clear fundraising chief popping out of final yr’s third quarter — with $237,363.43.
Katko, in the meantime, raised $436,921 in final yr’s first quarter, probably the most he has raised in a primary quarter of any yr since he first ran in 2014. Within the second quarter, he raised greater than half 1,000,000, his second-best second quarter ever. Within the third quarter, he raised virtually half 1,000,000 once more, with cash coming from PACs related to Home GOP leaders — together with McCarthy.
